Definition of Maintenance Policies in Power Systems Using a Sequential Monte Carlo
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Abstract
This paper reports an application of a simulationmethod called chronological Monte Carlo to evaluate power systems reliability. The Monte Carlo methods are, nowadays, the most widely used method for the estimation of reliability indices. Most of reliability studies that use Monte Carlo simulations are based on a hypothetical situation: the use of a constant failure rate ??. This paper demonstrates a new application that is able to include the typical variation of the failure rate ?? of electrical components that is represented by the well-known bathtub curve and, moreover, is able to show the advantages of different maintenance strategies. The results obtained with the Monte Carlo applications are compared with each other and with a typical Monte Carlo process. The proposed methodologies will be tested in the IEEE RTS-79.
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